Rating is the expected margin against an average team on a neutral field: offense plus defense plus special teams. A game's spread is home rating minus away rating, plus 1.9 points for home field. Small numbers are league ranks. Change compares with last week's rank. Remaining SOS is the average rating of opponents still to play.

Market lines are the sportsbook consensus as of Tuesday. Edge is the gap between the Almanac spread and the market. Lean is the side the Almanac takes against the market line, with its chance to cover. Edges of 2 points or more are highlighted in orange, favorite or underdog. Gaps of three points or more have covered 54 to 56 percent of the time since 2015. Quarterbacks follow this week's news; other injuries are added on game day.

Week 9 results

Right means the favorite covered that column's own spread. Miss is how far the predicted margin was from the final margin.

Super Bowl odds

Share of simulated seasons each team wins the Super Bowl. Teams under half a percent are left off.

Conference championship odds

Share of simulated seasons each team wins its conference and reaches the Super Bowl.

Projected seeds

Projected bracket

Single-game win chances from the Almanac, higher seed at home. The Vikings and Seahawks are rated with Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold back.

Odds board

Projected record is the average across simulations, rounded. Each column is the share of simulated seasons where it happened.